WUNDERKAMMER

Chapter7: Conclusion

China’s naval strategies to enhance its control over the seas are based on the Chinese characteristics, their nationalism, the economic growth and the legitimacy of the Communist government. While the U.S., which has the strongest power in Asia, does not want any new regional hegemony state for its security and national interests reasons, Chinese national strategy will be a challenge to the American dominance over the region.  With the economic and nationalistic reasons, China tries to expand its territory with its military power.  Also, because China and other Asian states share the natural resources and the same sea-lane, they cannot ignore the expansion of their rival’s naval power.  This will cause the arm races and instability between Asian states.  However, only after the communist government seizes Taiwan successfully and controls the Second Islands Chain, they can be the challenger against the American power on the sea, because of its lack of modern vessels and the presence of other states’ strong navies.  What the U.S. and its allies can do to prepare is to enhance their naval power so that the PLAN cannot keep up with them.

The future of East Asia is still unclear; there are six out of eight states which officially possess nuclear weapons in this region, besides the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan issues.  The Chinese expansion creates new tension in these states (especially India and Pakistan-both of them have nuclear weapons).  Moreover, no one can be sure whether China will be democratic or the communist government can keep its authority with the capitalism economic policies.  Even if China becomes democratic, there is no promise that the PLAN will stop the expansion, which is based on the economic growth and patriotism, not the communists’ theory.

We also need to be conscious about one more influential state in Asia: Russia.  As the Soviet Union’s collapse, the Russian naval power in Asia has declined.  However, the Russian technological supports and arms sales to the PLAN have tremendous impact on the Asian states. ^[1]Sutter, “China’s Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils,” 113.  After 2003, China-Russian relations are warm as they agree on the anti-Iraq War and the anti-America attitude.  However, there is no assurance that this relationship lasts forever.  If a state pursues its survivability, the rise of the neighbor is the worst care scenario.  Actually, many Russians now fear the Chinese economic and military growth. ^[2]Richard Weitz, “Why Russia and China Have Not Formed an Anti-American Alliance,” Naval War College Review LVI, no.4 (2003): 52, … Continue reading  We do not know whether the end of Russian support forces slow down of the PLAN’s expansion or not (because China will add Russia in its list of rivals, so that more forces are needed).  Whatever the future is, the fundamental interests of China today are national security, economic development, and political legitimacy.  The Chinese government has decided to use military power to obtain them.  As long as these issues are the Chinese national interests, the PLAN and a whole PLA will expand its missions.